International standards for wind turbine certification depend on finding long-term fatigue load distributions that are conservative with respect to the state of knowledge for a given system. Statistical models of loads for fatigue application are described and demonstrated using flap and edge blade-bending data from a commercial turbine in complex terrain. Distributions of rainflow-counted range data for each ten-minute segment are characterized by parameters related to their first three statistical moments (mean, coefficient of variation, and skewness). Quadratic Weibull distribution functions based on these three moments are shown to match the measured load distributions if the non-damaging low-amplitude ranges are first eliminated. The moments are mapped to the wind conditions with a two-dimensional regression over ten-minute average wind speed and turbulence intensity. With this mapping, the short-term distribution of ranges is known for any combination of average wind speed and turbulence intensity. The long-term distribution of ranges is determined by integrating over the annual distribution of input conditions. First, we study long-term loads derived by integration over wind speed distribution alone, using standard-specified turbulence levels. Next, we perform this integration over both wind speed and turbulence distribution for the example site. Results are compared between standard-driven and site-driven load estimates. Finally, using statistics based on the regression of the statistical moments over the input conditions, the uncertainty (due to the limited data set) in the long-term load distribution is represented by 95% confidence bounds on predicted loads.
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November 2001
Technical Papers
Parametric Models for Estimating Wind Turbine Fatigue Loads for Design
Lance Manuel,
Lance Manuel
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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Paul S. Veers,
Paul S. Veers
Sandia National Laboratories, Wind Energy Technology Department, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708
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Steven R. Winterstein
Steven R. Winterstein
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020
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Lance Manuel
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
Paul S. Veers
Sandia National Laboratories, Wind Energy Technology Department, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708
Steven R. Winterstein
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020
Contributed by the Solar Energy Division of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers for publication in the ASME JOURNAL OF SOLAR ENERGY ENGINEERING. Manuscript received by the ASME Solar Energy Division, February 2001; final revision June 2001. Associate Editor: D. Berg.
J. Sol. Energy Eng. Nov 2001, 123(4): 346-355 (10 pages)
Published Online: June 1, 2001
Article history
Received:
February 1, 2001
Revised:
June 1, 2001
Citation
Manuel, L., Veers, P. S., and Winterstein, S. R. (June 1, 2001). "Parametric Models for Estimating Wind Turbine Fatigue Loads for Design ." ASME. J. Sol. Energy Eng. November 2001; 123(4): 346–355. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1409555
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