Abstract

Complex systems may operate in scenarios where the current requirements were “unknown” at the time of their original design. Such “unknown” requirements might be outside the probability distribution expected during the design phase or, more drastically, might not have been predicted. Yet, not meeting these “unknown” requirements can significantly reduce system value. Engineering design researchers have begun addressing this challenge by exploring how incorporating margins when the system is being designed—a form of strategic inefficiency—might increase a system’s total lifetime value by reducing sensitivity to requirement changes and truncating change propagation. Quantitatively studying excess margin beyond what is required for known uncertainties has been particularly challenging as information is needed about how requirements change, how system performance is impacted by requirement changes, and how components are priced. A quantitative study around excess using 20 years of data for desktop computers, video game consoles, and video games is developed. Evidence is provided that excess can improve end-user system value when future requirements are unknown. This paper also advances the notion of strategic excess (excess incorporated in a single component), showing as one example that excess RAM would have improved system performance by 14% (on average) for 7% of total system cost. In demonstrating the value of excess, we strengthen the argument that engineers (and end-users) should embrace strategic inefficiencies—even though they might never be used—and further study the implications of system architecture and module interfaces decisions.

References

1.
Schulz
,
A. P.
,
Fricke
,
E.
, and
Igenbergs
,
E.
,
2000
, “
Enabling Changes in Systems Throughout the Entire Life-Cycle—Key to Success?
,”
Proceedings of the 10th Annual INCOSE Conference
,
Minneapolis, MN
,
July 16–20
, pp.
565
573
.
2.
Shankar
,
P.
,
Morkos
,
B.
, and
Summers
,
J. D.
,
2012
, “
Reasons for Change Propagation: A Case Study in an Automotive OEM
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
23
(
4
), pp.
291
303
. 10.1007/s00163-012-0132-2
3.
Hawthorne-Tagg
,
L. S.
,
2004
,
Development of the B-52: The Wright Field Story, History Office, Aeronautical Systems Center, Air Force Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
,
Ohio
.
4.
Air Force Global Strike Command Public Affairs Office
, “
B-52 Stratofortress Fact Sheet
.” https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104465/b-52h-stratofortress/, Accessed January 11, 2021.
5.
Sanchez
,
M. V.
,
2011
, “
Venerable, Valued Bombers
,”
Air Force Mag.
,
94
(
1
), pp.
28
33
.
6.
Long
,
D.
, and
Ferguson
,
S.
,
2017
, “
A Case Study of Evolvability and Excess on the B-52 Stratofortress and F/A-18 Hornet
,”
ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
,
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
,
Cleveland, OH
,
Aug. 6–9
, p.
DETC2017-68287
, V004T05A026.
7.
Jarratt
,
T. A. W.
,
Eckert
,
C. M.
,
Caldwell
,
N. H. M.
, and
Clarkson
,
P. J.
,
2011
, “
Engineering Change: An Overview and Perspective on the Literature
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
22
(
2
), pp.
103
124
. 10.1007/s00163-010-0097-y
8.
Ross
,
A. M.
,
Rhodes
,
D. H.
, and
Hastings
,
D. E.
,
2008
, “
Defining Changeability: Reconciling Flexibility, Adaptability, Scalability, Modifiability, and Robustness for Maintaining System Lifecycle Value
,”
Syst. Eng.
,
11
(
3
), pp.
246
262
. 10.1002/sys.20098
9.
Htet Hein
,
P.
,
Voris
,
N.
, and
Morkos
,
B.
,
2018
, “
Predicting Requirement Change Propagation Through Investigation of Physical and Functional Domains
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
29
(
2
), pp.
309
328
. 10.1007/s00163-017-0271-6
10.
Hu
,
J.
, and
Cardin
,
M.-A.
,
2015
, “
Generating Flexibility in the Design of Engineering Systems to Enable Better Sustainability and Lifecycle Performance
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
26
(
2
), pp.
121
143
. 10.1007/s00163-015-0189-9
11.
Cardin
,
M.-A.
,
2014
, “
Enabling Flexibility in Engineering Systems: A Taxonomy of Procedures and a Design Framework
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
136
(
1
), p.
11005
. 10.1115/1.4025704
12.
Sapol
,
S. J.
, and
Szajnfarber
,
Z.
,
2020
, “
Revisiting Flexibility in Design: An Analysis of the Impact of Implementation Uncertainty on the Value of Real Options
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
142
(
12
), p.
121701
. 10.1115/1.4047682
13.
Ferguson
,
S.
,
Lewis
,
K.
,
Siddiqi
,
A.
, and
de Weck
,
O. L.
,
2007
, “
Flexible and Reconfigurable Systems: Nomenclature and Review
,”
ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
,
Las Vegas, NV
,
Sept. 4–7
, p.
DETC2007-35745
, pp.
249
263
.
14.
Chalupnik
,
M. J.
,
Wynn
,
D. C.
, and
Clarkson
,
P. J.
,
2013
, “
Comparison of Ilities for Protection Against Uncertainty in System Design
,”
J. Eng. Des.
,
24
(
12
), pp.
814
829
. 10.1080/09544828.2013.851783
15.
Uckun
,
S.
,
Mackey
,
R.
,
Do
,
M.
,
Zhou
,
R.
,
Huang
,
E.
, and
Shah
,
J. J.
,
2014
, “
Measures of Product Design Adaptability for Changing Requirements
,”
AI EDAM
,
28
(
4
), pp.
353
368
.
16.
Engel
,
A.
,
Browning
,
T. R.
, and
Reich
,
Y.
,
2017
, “
Designing Products for Adaptability: Insights From Four Industrial Cases
,”
Decis. Sci.
,
48
(
5
), pp.
875
917
. 10.1111/deci.12254
17.
Hamraz
,
B.
,
Caldwell
,
N. H. M.
, and
Clarkson
,
P. J.
,
2013
, “
A Holistic Categorization Framework for Literature on Engineering Change Management
,”
Syst. Eng.
,
16
(
4
), pp.
473
505
. 10.1002/sys.21244
18.
Eckert
,
C.
,
Clarkson
,
P. J.
, and
Zanker
,
W.
,
2004
, “
Change and Customisation in Complex Engineering Domains
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
15
(
1
), pp.
1
21
. 10.1007/s00163-003-0031-7
19.
Clarkson
,
P. J.
,
Simons
,
C.
,
Eckert
,
C.
,
Clarkson
,
J. P.
,
Simmons
,
C.
, and
Eckert
,
C.
,
2004
, “
Predicting Change Propagation in Complex Design
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
126
(
5
), pp.
778
797
. 10.1115/1.1765117
20.
Sosa
,
M. E.
,
Eppinger
,
S. D.
, and
Rowles
,
C. M.
,
2007
, “
A Network Approach to Define Modularity of Components in Complex Products
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
129
(
11
), pp.
1118
1129
. 10.1115/1.2771182
21.
Otto
,
K.
,
Hölttä-Otto
,
K.
,
Simpson
,
T. W.
,
Krause
,
D.
,
Ripperda
,
S.
, and
Ki Moon
,
S.
,
2016
, “
Global Views on Modular Design Research: Linking Alternative Methods to Support Modular Product Family Concept Development
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
138
(
7
), p.
071101
. 10.1115/1.4033654
22.
Tilstra
,
A. H.
,
Backlund
,
P. B.
,
Seepersad
,
C. C. C.
, and
Wood
,
K. L.
,
2015
, “
Principles for Designing Products With Flexibility for Future Evolution
,”
Int. J. Mass Cust.
,
5
(
1
), pp.
22
54
. 10.1504/IJMASSC.2015.069597
23.
Eckert
,
C.
,
Isaksson
,
O.
, and
Earl
,
C.
,
2019
, “
Design Margins: A Hidden Issue in Industry
,”
Des. Sci.
,
5
, p.
e9
. 10.1017/dsj.2019.7
24.
Brahma
,
A.
, and
Wynn
,
D. C.
,
2020
, “
Margin Value Method for Engineering Design Improvement
,”
Res. Eng. Des.
,
31
(
3
), pp.
353
381
. 10.1007/s00163-020-00335-8
25.
Tackett
,
M. W.
,
Mattson
,
C. A.
, and
Ferguson
,
S. M.
,
2013
, “
A Model for Quantifying System Evolvability Based on Excess and Modularity
,”
54th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
,
Boston, MA
,
Apr. 8–11, 2013
, p.
AIAA 2013-1752
.
26.
Cansler
,
E. Z.
,
White
,
S. B.
,
Ferguson
,
S. M.
, and
Mattson
,
C. A.
,
2016
, “
Excess Identification and Mapping in Engineered Systems
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
138
(
8
), p.
081103
. 10.1115/1.4033884
27.
Tackett
,
M. W. P.
,
Mattson
,
C. a.
, and
Ferguson
,
S. M.
,
2014
, “
A Model for Quantifying System Evolvability Based on Excess and Capacity
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
136
(
5
), p.
051002
. 10.1115/1.4026648
28.
Watson
,
J. D.
,
Allen
,
J. D.
,
Mattson
,
C. A.
, and
Ferguson
,
S. M.
,
2016
, “
Optimization of Excess System Capability for Increased Evolvability
,”
Struct. Multidiscip. Optim.
,
53
(
6
), pp.
1277
1294
. 10.1007/s00158-015-1378-x
29.
Allen
,
J. D.
,
Mattson
,
C. A.
, and
Ferguson
,
S.
,
2016
, “
Evaluation of System Evolvability Based on Usable Excess
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
138
(
9
), p.
91101
. 10.1115/1.4033989
30.
White
,
S.
, and
Ferguson
,
S.
,
2017
, “
Exploring Architecture Selection and System Evolvability
,”
ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
,
Cleveland, OH
,
Aug. 6–9
, pp.
DETC2017-68290
, V02BT03A044.
31.
Yadav
,
D.
,
Long
,
D.
,
Morkos
,
B.
, and
Ferguson
,
S.
,
2019
, “
Estimating the Value of Excess: A Case Study of Gaming Computers, Consoles and the Video Game Industry
,”
ASME 2019 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
,
Anaheim, CA
,
Aug. 18–21
, pp.
DETC2019-98428
, V02AT03A050.
32.
Long
,
D.
,
Morkos
,
B.
, and
Ferguson
,
S. M.
,
2020
, “
Forecasting The Value of Excess in Personal Gaming Computers
,”
ASME 2020 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
, Virtual Online,
Aug. 17–19
, p.
DETC2020-22248
, V11BT11A051.
33.
Hale
,
J. L.
,
2017
, “
When Is It Time to Buy a New Computer? These Are the Tell-Tale Signs You Need to Say Goodbye
,” Bustle, November 28. https://www.bustle.com/p/when-is-it-time-to-buy-a-new-computer-these-are-the-tell-tale-signs-you-need-to-say-goodbye-6457626, Accessed January 11, 2021.
34.
Shah
,
A.
,
2016
, “
The PC Upgrade Cycle Slows to Every Five to Six Years, Intel’s CEO Says
,”
IDG News Serv.
, June 1. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3077983/the-pc-upgrade-cycle-slows-to-every-five-to-six-years-intels-ceo-says.html, Accessed January 11, 2021.
35.
LaMarco
,
N.
,
2019
, “
Parts of the Computer & Their Uses
,” Chron, January 28. https://smallbusiness.chron.com/parts-computer-affect-its-speed-38257.html, Accessed January 11, 2021.
36.
Kay
,
J.
, and
King
,
M.
,
2020
,
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
,
W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.
,
New York, NY
.
37.
N/A
,
2008
, “
Hard Stuff Trinity
,”
PC Gamer Mag.
, December, 79.
38.
Zahran
,
M.
,
2019
,
Heterogenous Computing: Hardware and Software Perspectives
,
Association for Computing Machinery
,
New York, NY
.
39.
Chidamber
,
S.
, and
Kon
,
H.
,
1994
, “
A Research Retrospective of Innovation Inception and Success: The Technology-Push Demand-Pull Question
,”
Int. J. Technol. Manage.
,
53
(
9
), pp.
1689
1699
.
40.
Dale Thomas
,
L.
, and
Burris
,
K.
,
2018
,
Generational Evolution in Complex Engineered Systems
,
Disciplinary Convergence in Systems Engineering Research, Springer International Publishing
,
Cham, Switzerland
, pp.
751
764
.
41.
Zhang
,
G.
,
Morris
,
E.
,
Allaire
,
D.
, and
McAdams
,
D. A.
,
2020
, “
Research Opportunities and Challenges in Engineering System Evolution
,”
ASME J. Mech. Des.
,
142
(
8
), p.
081401
. 10.1115/1.4045908
42.
Dingman
,
H.
,
2017
, “
9 Reasons Why PC Gaming Is Better than Consoles
,”
PC World, November 3
. https://www.pcworld.com/article/3118250/9-reasons-why-pc-gaming-is-a-better-value-than-consoles.html, Accessed January 11, 2021.
43.
Linneman
,
J.
,
2019
, “
Control on Console Is Brilliant—as Long as You Play on the Right Hardware
,”
Eurogamer, August 28
. https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2019-control-console-face-off, Accessed January 11, 2021.
44.
Bailey
,
K.
,
2019
, “
Games Are Running Worse Than Ever on the Base PS4 and Xbox One. Is There a Solution?
,”
USGamer, September 16
. https://www.usgamer.net/articles/games-are-worse-than-ever-on-the-base-ps4-and-xbox-one-is-there-a-solution, Accessed January 11, 2021.
45.
Dupre
,
R.
,
2020
, “
Can GameStop Hang On Until the Console Upgrade Cycle Reboots?
,”
Nasdaq, January 19
. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-gamestop-hang-on-until-the-console-upgrade-cycle-reboots-2020-01-19, Accessed January 11, 2021.
46.
Thier
,
D.
,
2020
, “
The Xbox One And PS4 Were The Last Console Generation
,”
Forbes, January 11
. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2020/01/11/the-xbox-one-and-ps4-were-the-last-console-generation/?sh=64de82403db2, Accessed January 11, 2021.
47.
Gilbert
,
B.
,
2020
, “
How Microsoft’s Next Xbox Plans to End the Console Wars With Sony
,”
Bus. Insid.
, July 25. https://www.businessinsider.com/playstation-xbox-console-wars-end-microsoft-sony-2020-1, Accessed January 11, 2021.
48.
Intel Corporation
,
2020
, “
The PC Gaming System Requirements for 2020 Games—Intel
.” https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/gaming/resources/system-requirements.html, Accessed December 16, 2020
49.
Thomas
,
B.
,
2019
, “
Games Are Getting Harder to Run: Are PC Games Still Held Back by Consoles? | TechRadar
,”
TechRadar
. https://www.techradar.com/news/games-are-getting-harder-to-run-are-pc-games-still-held-back-by-consoles, Accessed December 16, 2020
50.
Schwartz
,
B.
,
2016
,
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
,
Harper Collins Publishers Inc.
,
New York, NY
.
51.
Weber
,
J.
,
2009
,
Automotive Development Processes: Processes for Successful Customer Oriented Vehicle Development
,
Springer, New York
,
NY
.
52.
Keeney
,
R. L.
,
1973
, “
A Decision Analysis With Multiple Objectives: The Mexico City Airport
,”
Bell J. Econ. Manage. Sci.
,
4
(
1
), p.
101
. 10.2307/3003141
53.
Hazelrigg
,
G. A.
,
2012
,
Fundamentals of Decision Making for Engineering Design and Systems Engineering, Self-published
.
54.
2018
, “
Games Software/Hardware $165B+ in 2018, $230B+ in 5 Years, Record $2B+ Investment Last Year
,”
Digi-Capital, January 15
. https://www.digi-capital.com/news/2018/01/games-software-hardware-165b-in-2018-230b-in-5-years-record-2b-investment-last-year/, Accessed January 11, 2021.
55.
Collopy
,
P. D.
, and
Hollingsworth
,
P. M.
,
2011
, “
Value-Driven Design
,”
J. Aircr.
,
48
(
3
), pp.
749
759
. 10.2514/1.C000311
56.
Naim
,
A. N.
, and
Lewis
,
K.
,
2017
, “
Modeling the Dynamics of Innovation in Engineered Systems
,”
ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
,
Cleveland, OH
,
Aug. 6–9
, p.
DETC2017-68180
, V02AT03A018.
57.
Upton
,
D. M.
,
1995
, “
What Really Makes Factories Flexible?
,”
Harv. Bus. Rev.
,
73
(
4
), pp.
74
84
.
You do not currently have access to this content.