A Risk-Informed Decision Making Methodology for Evaluating Failure Impact of Early System Designs

In this paper, we introduce a new risk-informed decision-making methodology for use during early design of complex systems. The proposed approach is based on the notion that a failure happens when a functional element in the system does not perform its intended task. Accordingly, risk is defined depending on the role of functionality in accomplishing designed tasks. A simulation-based failure analysis tool is used to analyze functional failures and their impact on overall system functionality. The analysis results are then integrated into a decision-making framework that relates the impact of functional failures and their propagation to decision making in order to guide system level design decisions. With the help of the proposed methodology, a multitude of failure scenarios can be quickly analyzed to determine the effects of decisions on overall system risk. Using this decision-making approach, design teams can systematically explore risks and vulnerabilities during early, functional stage of system development prior to the selection of specific components. Application of the presented method to a reservoir system design demonstrates these capabilities.