Abstract

This model estimates the probability of completing a product development process over time. The Design Structure Matrix (DSM) framework is used to capture the information dependencies between tasks using the concepts of Probability of Change and Impact. The model incorporates a stochastic element that represents the likelihood of changes resulting in task iterations.

The model captures the dynamic behavior of a product development process formed by a combination of parallel, serial and coupled tasks. The model relaxes the assumption that coupled tasks take place in a complete parallel or serial iteration. It can be used to compare the development time of the project for different task sequences and overlapping degrees. This tool allows for identification of the leverage points in the system, providing information about the most effective way to reduce development time.

This project was a joint effort with a Hewlett-Packard division, and the observations and practical application presented are based on this field experience.

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